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As we can see GDP growth rate was at 5.4% YOY. Revised GDP for the year to Mar25 to 6.4% but lowest GDP number since Covid.
GDP number are not the only parameter to measure, like service sector has contribution of 60% of GDP, highest in other sectors and fastest growth sector. Agriculture and manufacturing accounts for 12% and 15% respectively.
Due to strong agriculture seasoned has bolstered up robust demand for rural consumption.
Thanks to DII’s participation and retail participation against foreign outflows, which has some cushion the impact of global skepticism, thanks for change of mindset from savings to investments post covid.
As per the Dec 24 SIP contribution has reached Rs. 26459 crore and 31% of bank deposits are in mutual funds, in 2014 it was around 10.70% of bank deposits in India.
DII inflow increased from $8.64 billion in FY19 to $13.35 billion in FY24 up to mid Jan 25, FII’s inflow has been seen $20.48 billion.
FY19 to FY23 retail participation of young investments below age 30 have grown remarkably from 29% to 48%, this data shows how young minds have started for growth of India’s fortune.
Total expenditure to grow at 8.5%, lower than 20.6% growth was in FY24. Revenue expenditure growth is budgeted at 8.9% in FY25 vs an average growth was at 13.9% in previous three years. After a robust capital expenditure in last three years of 39.3%, slowed down to 6.5% in FY25.
GFCF Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a key driver for economic growth, is expected to grow by 6.4% in FY25 as per MOSPI.
Source: MOSPI
RBI estimated that economy would grow by 6.6% supported by rural consumption, govt. investment and robust service exports.
Index of Industrial grew by 5.2% YOY driven by demand during festive season and pick-up in manufacturing.
US GDP growth rate at 2.7% inflation at 2.7%, 10-year bond yield at 4.62% and policy rate at 4.5%.
India GDP growth rate at 5.4%, inflation rate 5.2%, 10-year G-Sec at 6.8% and policy rate at 6.5%.
Nifty PE is trading at 21.2x below it's five year average PE of 24.96. Large cap is trading at fair valuations for long term investments.
There are key events which need to be watch like Trump actions towards trade and fiscal, China measure and India’s Union Budget which is expected to be on 1st Feb. Earnings growth to be strong for next two financial year. Inflation for the month of Dec 24 cooled off to 5.22%.
India economy would be stable and growing economy. RBI would be more focused on liquidity while balancing between inflation and growth.