The Reserve Bank of India expect the economy to grow by 7.2% in 2025. Whereas nominal GDP projection is 9.6% and 10.8% FY24 and FY25 respectively.
US GDP grows at 3%, inflation at 2.5%, 10-year bond yield at 4.1% and policy rate at 5 % after the fed rate cut by 50 basis points.
April 24 June, 2024 GDP growth rate of India is at 6.7% which was down from 7.8% from the previous quarter.
Inflation in India increased to 5.49 in Sep 2024 from 3.65% in August 2024, due to increased prices of food and beverages.
Vegetable prices was rose by 35.99% compared to August 10.74% YOY. Month on month basis vegetable prices rose by 3.5%.
Core inflation is at 3.65% in September compared to August 3.6%, core inflation that excluded foods and fuel from the basket.
CAD is expected to remain stable supported by lower gold imports and strong exports by the service industry.
IIP growth rate of India was at -0.1% in August 24 compared to 4.7% in July 2024. Manufacturing sector shows some positive output like mining and electricity experienced slow growth.
Nifty 50 PE is trading at 23.3 and EPS at 1063. Expected EPS growth rate is 15% in FY25 and FY26 with expected EPS value of Rs. 1222 and Rs. 1405 by FY25-FY26 respectively.
As per the August data total Mutual Fund AUM expanded by 6x in last 10 years to 66.7 Lakh Crore from 10.1 lakh crores.
SIP contribution stands at Rs. 23547 crores.
Highest net inflows of Rs. 18117 crores in Sectoral/Thematic in August.
Expected rate cut will further boost economy in coming FY.
Large cap is trading at fair valuations compare to mid and small cap.
Although Indian economy is expected to moderate growth rate from 6.5% to 7% in FY2025. Inflation likely to be below RBI target of 4%. Retail participation in MF and equity further continue to rise. RBI expect rate cut by early CY25 boost economy further. The external sector remains strong, controlled CAD and stable warning outlook, focus would be balancing growth and inflation.