In 2026, geopolitical uncertainty,
the intersection of value investing has shifted from theoretical exercise to survival
guide.
However, “Value” is not about
just P/E ratios, it is more about finding companies which are fundamental strong
“Anti Fragile” —offering defensive shields against geopolitical shocks and
minimal drawdowns during corrections.
Final Blog Conclusion Snippet
Our research highlights Bharti
Airtel and ONGC as prime examples of our methodology, offering a 23%
and 67% Margin of Safety respectively. These case studies, demonstrated on the
last page of this blog, show how we identify deep value and resilient
growth to protect and compound your capital in 2026.
The Strategy: Low drawdown
in a volatile world. In this current environment broader market can be
volatile, but specific sectors and companies holding “real asset” which cushion
with defensive buffer.
Our 2026 strategy focuses on four
pillars:
Onshoring & Infrastructure:
Companies those who have direct benefits form China+1 strategy and domestic
manufacturing subsidies.
Energy Security: Involved
in expanding renewable transition with long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
that provides stable and profitable cash flows.
Défense & Security Tech: Companies
those who have multi-year order books from the government. Which should be
decoupled from standard economic cycles means instead of falling whin the
global economy dips, a decoupled entity may hold steady or even grow.
The “Fortress” Balance Sheet
Prioritizing companies with strong
fundamental, moat, positive cash flow and cash rich companies, which has margin
improvement, ROE & ROCE>15% and most important debt-to-equity<0.5.
My Research for Wealth+ Value
Strategy Selection Criteria
Through my proprietary research
at Wealth+ Advisers, I have identified few companies which is align with a
strict investment philosophy. Strong fundaments + durable moats + deep
valuation discount.
Durable Moats (The “Resilience”
Factor)
Many of them believe that low
price of company from 52 week high is right but that is a trap, if company’s
competitive advantage is eroding.
We Prioritize
High Switching Cost:
Essential infrastructure or tech like
Bharti Airtel’s Data Centres expansion.
Cost Leadership:
Which can bypass the tariffs
through local supply chains policy. Aligned moats: sectors like Défense &
renewable that are shield/backed by ‘National Security’ mandate.
Pricing Power
Gross margin stability- if any
reason company’s raw material cost increases then due to having pricing power,
company’s has ability to remain their gross profit margin either flat or increase
like (Oil & Semiconductor).
Revenue Growth> Volume
Growth
If demand decreases for their product
& it sells 2% but revenue grow by 8% (pricing power, where revenue growth
outpaces volume growth due to increased prices).
High Customer Stickiness:
When the “pain” of leaving is
higher then the “pain” of a price hike.
Deep Valuation Discount (The
DCF Approach)
As per the current geo-political
scenario, we simply can not rely on P/E ratios. We should use DCF methodology
to evaluate a company intrinsic value based on projected future cash flows,
discounted for 2026 risk levels.
The ‘Margin of Safety (“MOS”):
My research targets a “Buy Zone” in Wealth+ Value Strategy, where price is
at 11% to 67% discount to the intrinsic values.
Case Study I: The 23% MoS in
Action (Bharti Airtel)
Using the DCF Method, we analysed
Bharti Airtel not just as a telco, but as a critical AI-infrastructure
provider.
Case Study II: The 67%
MoS in Action (ONGC)
Using a 10-year Discounted
Cash Flow (DCF) model, we analysed ONGC not just as an oil driller, but as
India’s Energy Sovereignty Backbone.
Why the 67% Gap Exists
There are three ‘invisible’ value
drivers behind this discount factor:
The Gas Explosion:
‘New Well Gas’ revenue would
fetch premium price over older APM gas, which would contribute 18% of revenue
and expected to hit 24% by FY27.
The Andaman Moonshot:
Exploration in ultra-deep water
in Andaman basin, which impact high re-rating potential
Government’s Mission Samudra
Manthan: India’s Largest Offshore Exploration Push
The Government of India has
launched “Mission Samudra Manthan,” issuing a global tender for deepwater rigs
valued at approximately ₹1.7 Lakh Crore (~$20 Bn), the largest offshore
exploration initiative in India’s history. As the dominant state-owned E&P
operator, ONGC is the primary execution vehicle for this programme, with the
Andaman blocks representing a material reserve replacement opportunity that
could structurally rebase production volumes over the next decade.
Summary: A Fiduciary Approach
to 2026
The goal for 2026 is "Value
Orchestration" By combining deep margin of safety with
government-aligned sectors like Défense, Renewables, and Healthcare, we aim to
cap the downside while leaving the upside uncapped.
Disclaimer: This analysis uses an EPS-based DCF model for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. The intrinsic value and Margin of Safety shown are highly dependent on growth assumptions that may change with global oil prices. All stock investments carry risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence before making any trades. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred.
Investment Advisor Name: Surendra J | Registration No: INA000021474
Disclaimers:
The case studies of Bharti Airtel and ONGC are for educational purposes to illustrate our DCF methodology and are NOT buy/sell recommendations. Investment in the securities market is subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
The Advisor or his clients may maintain a financial interest or position in the securities discussed. In alignment with fiduciary standards, we maintain internal policies to manage and mitigate potential conflicts, ensuring that client interests are prioritized in all advisory engagements.